Why to take the under in Bears vs. Rams tonight

Create: 2020-10-26
Update: 2020-10-26
Score: 4
Safe: Yes

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Monday, October 26, 2020
The Cleveland Browns cannot have nice things. On Sunday, the Browns beat the rival Bengals 37-34 in a far more entertaining game than a game between the Browns and Bengals has any right to be, but a dark cloud hovered over it the entire time. Early in the game, after the requisite Baker Mayfield interception, Odell Beckham was injured after making the tackle following the turnover. After the game, word leaked out of Cleveland that the team wasn't optimistic about Beckham's injury, and the pessimism was confirmed on Monday afternoon.
Beckham is going to miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL.
That's bad news for the Browns, and it's also bad news for my fantasy team, but it's worse news for the Browns. Well, maybe to the Browns. To me, it's worse for my fantasy team, but I digress!
If there's any good news, it's that Donovan Peoples-Jones had an excellent game, catching the game-winning touchdown. Still, the Browns were left with only three active receivers on the roster after Beckham's injury yesterday, so they might want to consider finding somebody on the trade market.
Maybe they should consider the disgruntled receiver on the Bengals team they just beat?
Elsewhere in the news on this Monday afternoon:
  • Mike McCarthy is unhappy about the way Cowboys players responded to the hit on Andy Dalton.
  • Do the Cowboys need some FitzMagic?
  • Is it time to trade Todd Gurley in your fantasy league?
  • All the important stuff from a wild weekend of college football.
OK, let's get you ready for Monday Night Football.
All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Bears at Rams, 8:15 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Under 44.5 (-110)
: I get the strong sense that tonight's game isn't going to come close to matching the insanity we saw between the Cardinals and Seahawks on Sunday night. It'll probably be the polar opposite. The Rams offense was one of the stories of the NFL two years ago when Sean McVay was in his first season, and the team was scoring 32.9 points per game en route to making the Super Bowl. The Patriots defense shut the unit down in that game, and things haven't been the same since.
The Rams scored only 24.6 points per game last season and come into tonight's game averaging 25.3 points per game. That's good enough to rank 18th in the NFL, and this Bears defense will be the best unit it's faced all season. On the flip side, while he's more capable of making big throws at key moments, Nick Foles hasn't been all that much better than Mitch Trubisky since taking over the starting job. In fact, Foles' numbers have been worse than Trubisky's in a lot of metrics. Tonight he faces a Rams defense that is better against the pass than the run, but the Bears rank 28th in the NFL in rushing DVOA.
So everything suggests a lower-scoring affair tonight in Los Angeles.
Key Trend: The under is 20-8 in Chicago's last 28 games as an underdog
Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: SportsLine's Advanced Computer Model spent its entire weekend simulating tonight's game instead of hanging out with its friends because it doesn't have any friends. It does have some picks it likes for tonight, though!
💰 More Monday Night Football picks
The Pick: Allen Robinson Under 71.5 receiving yards (-115) -- Another reason we like the under tonight? Well, Allen Robinson is essential to the Bears offense. When he's catching passes, moving the chains, and scoring touchdowns, the Bears offense is successful. When he isn't, it's not. It's a simple formula, and one the Rams are aware of, which is why we'll see Jalen Ramsey on Robinson all night long.
Opponents are completing only 53.8% of their passes when targeting Ramsey in coverage, and the ones they do complete are short throws. Opponents average only 4.35 yards per attempt against Ramsey, which ranks third in the NFL amongst defensive backs who have been targeted at least 25 times. His goal tonight will be to shut down Robinson, whom he is more than familiar with after two seasons practicing against one another with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Key Trend: Jalen Ramsey has allowed only one completion over 20 yards this season.
The Pick: Darnell Mooney Over 2.5 receptions (-135) -- It stands to reason that if Jalen Ramsey is shadowing Allen Robinson, somebody else in the Bears offense will have to step up as a target. That could be Jimmy Graham, but I like the value of this Darnell Mooney prop better than Graham's. Mooney is a rookie who has seen an increase in targets since Foles took over. With Foles starting, Mooney is being targeted 6.3 times per game and is averaging three receptions for 34.3 yards per game.
Key Trend: Darnell Mooney has caught at least three passes in four of six games. 
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: SportsLine expert R.J. White treats picking NFL games the same way I treat a sausage pizza: he dominates it. Tonight he looks to keep his excellent record picking both Rams and Bears games going with a strong lean on the spread.
💸 The DFS Rundown
Your MVP or Captain
Jared Goff -- We're expecting a low-scoring affair, but the player most likely to lead the game in fantasy points is Goff. Don't go expecting a lot, but a touchdown or two isn't out of the question. Consider a stack of Goff with Cooper Kupp and Josh Reynolds and then see what you can squeeze in from there.
Josh Reynolds -- Maybe I should've put a spoiler alert on the Goff blurb? Anyway, I think Reynolds is offering good value tonight. He's been targeted at least four times in the last four games, and we'll see the Bears Kyle Fuller shadowing Robert Woods tonight like Ramsey will be on Robinson. That means Reynolds will see either the rookie Jaylon Johnson or Buster Skrine. 
Full lineup advice
SportsLine's team of DFS insiders has you covered for daily fantasy sports. Mike McClure has won almost $2 million playing DFS and is one of the top MLB DFS experts anywhere. Check out his MLB picks here, and be sure to use SportsLine's all-new DFS Optimizer to get optimal NFL DFS picks from 10,000 simulations.
⚽ Champions League parlay
The Champions League resumes on Tuesday afternoon. You can watch it all on CBS All Access, and if you're watching it, you may as well have something riding on it. Betting 1 unit to win 2.23 units.
  • Bayern Munich -715
  • Real Madrid -112
  • Manchester City -295
  • Liverpool -835
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