Why Kings vs. Clippers is the best game to bet on in tonight\'s massive NBA slate

Create: 2021-01-20
Update: 2021-01-20
Score: 5
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Wednesday, January 20, 2021
Hello, and Happy Wednesday. I hope your day has gone well, and maybe you've been wearing a giant bird brooch? I hear that's a big thing in fashion these days.
Anyway, we've got a pretty big day going here. After a small NBA slate last night, we've got a massive one tonight, as well as a full night of college basketball and some NHL as well. It's a nice little night of sports we've got going. One I don't want to waste a lot of time getting to.
I mean, I could spend a paragraph or two complaining about the benches scoring 60 points in the fourth quarter of last night's Jazz-Pelicans game and destroying our under, but the past is the past, and we're in the now, and I'm not mad about it at all! In fact, I actually think it's funny! Just look at this massive smile on my face! Weeeeeeee!
Now let's all smile together and catch up on today's reading.
  • Golly gee the gosh darn Colts need a new QB because Philip Rivers is retiring, dagnabbit.
  • The Lions have made the hiring of Dan Campbell official.
  • The Blue Jays are eyeing another Astros outfielder to join George Springer.
OK, let's make some money
All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Kings at Clippers, 10 p.m. | TV: League Pass
The Pick: Kings +10.5 (-115)
: It can be difficult to trust the Kings. It's a team that ranks last in the league in defensive efficiency, and that can be a problem going up against one of the league's best teams like the Clippers. But did you know that the Clippers aren't exactly defensive stalwarts themselves? They aren't! The Clippers currently rank 23rd in the league in defensive efficiency. Now, you're probably thinking, "that's all well and good, but that didn't stop the Clippers from beating the Kings 138-100 last week."
Well, OK, fine, that's true, but the Clippers hit 18 threes in that game, all right? They're the best three-point shooting team in the league, but they're making them at a rate that just is not sustainable and has to regress at some point. So, considering the familiarity between these two, having just played last week, possible regression, and the fact that double-digit dogs in the NBA tend to be smart plays, we're all over the Kings tonight.
Key Trend: The Clippers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: How does the Advanced Computer Model feel about this game? Well, if it's as smart as it thinks it is, it'll agree with me.
💰 The Picks
Celtics at 76ers, 7 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Under 221.5 (-110) -- 
The Celtics have the best record in the East. The Celtics are not the best team in the East, nor have they played like it. They've actually been pretty mediocre, and I would expect them to begin sliding down the standings shortly. That said, I'm not ready to trust the Sixers to cover the spread tonight.
Instead, I'm expecting this game to look like a lot of games between these two recently. This is the first time they've played this year, but in eight meetings last season, they averaged 211.6 points per game. Only two of those eight meetings finished higher than the 221.5 point total we have for this matchup.
Key Trend: The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
🏀 College Basketball
Fresno State at Boise State, 9 p.m. | TV: FS1
The Pick: Fresno State +14.5 (-110) -- 
I've told you before how much I like mediocre to bad college teams getting a lot of points in conference games, so don't give me that look. Listen, Fresno State isn't very good! I'm not going to argue that they are! But while Boise State might be 12-1 on the season, it's built that record on a schedule that ranks 290th in the country. It has played one team in the top 50 of KenPom's rankings, and it lost that game to Houston 68-58 to begin its season. It has won 12 straight since, including eight straight in conference.
Still, even against an easy schedule, the Broncos have not been great defensively. Take Fresno not to get beat too badly. Also, while I have to lock it in at 14.5 due to time constraints on publishing, I would recommend waiting a little closer to tip before betting. I like it enough at 14.5 to include it, but it could get as high as 15 or 15.5 by tip.
Key Trend: The road team has covered five straight in the series.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: SportsLine MMA analyst Kyle Marley is up more than $22,000 over the past 23 months with his UFC selections. He just released his picks for Wednesday's UFC Fight Night card.
💸 The DFS Rundown
Star Plays
PG: Damian Lillard, Blazers
SG: DeMar DeRozan, Spurs
SF: Kawhi Leonard, Clippers
PF: Bam Adebayo, Heat
C: Nikola Vucevic, Magic
Value Plays
PG: Goran Dragic, Heat
SG: Terrence Ross, Magic
SF: Eric Gordon, Rockets
PF: Tristan Thompson, Celtics
C: Naz Reid, Timberwolves
Full lineup advice
Get winning NBA DFS picks from SportsLine pros Mike McClure and Jacob Gibbs. McClure has won almost $2 million in daily Fantasy, while Gibbs crushed the NBA last season, cashing around 65 percent of the time in cash games and nearly 45 percent of the time in tournaments. See their DraftKings advice and FanDuel lineups here.
 🏀 NBA Player Props
  • Kemba Walker Over 13.5 points (-110)
  • Kemba Walker Over 2.5 assists (-160)
  • Chris Paul Over 4.5 rebounds (-160)
  • Patrick Beverley Over 3.5 rebounds (-150)
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