Why No. 15 Texas Tech has a shot to upset No. 4 Texas

Create: 2021-01-13
Update: 2021-01-13
Score: 5
Safe: Yes

Outbound domains: view.email.cbssports.com | click.email.cbssports.com |
Email Not Displaying? Click Here
Wednesday, January 13, 2021
Happy Wednesday, dear reader. I must confess that today isn't as much a Happy Wednesday for me as it is an Annoyed Wednesday. Don't worry, you didn't do anything unless you work for the Chicago Bears.
Yeah, I spent a good portion of my late morning/early afternoon listening to everybody who works for the Chicago Bears telling me why there won't be any changes this offseason after another pointless year. The team president, general manager and head coach will all be back. The only change is that the defensive coordinator of the No. 8 defense in the league according to DVOA is retiring.
Everybody involved in the No. 25 offense by DVOA will return. That includes the head coach, who called plays most of the season, as well as the general manager, who not only drafted Mitch Trubisky over Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes, but traded away assets for the right to do so, are back as well. But, hey, the team president says that The Culture In The Building is strong, so what do I have to be worried about?
I'm going to spend the next couple of months praying that Deshaun Watson decides Chicago is where he wants to be. He won't, but I'm going to hold onto that hope anyway. At least until baseball season starts and the White Sox' World Series run distracts me!
Speaking of distractions, let's do some reading.
  • You'll be shocked to learn that players were more confident in a veteran QB than a rookie QB.
  • The Broncos have a new general manager.
  • Let's try to figure out who the next big name MLB star to be traded will be.
  • Dennis Dodd says expanding the College Football Playoff won't fix solve college football's problems.
Now let's figure out what we're betting on tonight.
All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
No. 15 Texas Tech at No. 4 Texas, 9 p.m. | TV: ESPN2
The Pick: Texas Tech +2 (-110)
: The Longhorns have been fantastic. They're off to a 10-1 start to the season, and their lone L was a four-point loss at home to Villanova. They've also done this against what has been a demanding schedule. All but three of their games have come against teams from major conferences or teams who could be competing for a tournament bid come March. In short, there's no fluke result that has seen Texas get lucky.
But I just get the sense that they can't play as well as they've played all year forever. There's going to be a slip at some point, and coming off a two-point win over West Virginia on the road over the weekend, I wonder if that night might be tonight. Like Texas, the Texas Tech team the Longhorns will face tonight has been wonderful defensively and will make life difficult on the Longhorns. Texas is an efficient offense, but it's not a great shooting team. It's a team that likes to get out on the run and score quickly. Tech has the capability of forcing Texas to play more halfcourt than it wants to, and I like the Red Raiders chances of pulling off an upset tonight. Still, I'd rather have the points.
Key Trend: The underdog has covered six of the last eight meetings.
Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: Find out what the Advanced Computer Model and SportsLine's top handicappers have to say about this game here.
💰 The Picks
Grizzlies at Timberwolves, 8 p.m. | TV: League Pass
The Pick: Grizzlies +2.5 (-110) -- 
This is simply one of those times when I'm betting against a team because I have a hard time believing it should be favored against anybody. Even a Memphis team that won't have Ja Morant or Jaren Jackson. Minnesota is bad. The Wolves are 3-7 on the season and have an average point differential of -10, which is the worst in the league by 2.6 points (Sacramento is next at -7.4). The Wolves combine the NBA's 26th most efficient offense with the league's 28th most efficient defense. It's a mess.
The Grizzlies, despite their shortcomings, can at least defend. While things have been ugly offensively without Ja Morant (28th in efficiency), they're the fourth-ranked defense in the league as far as efficiency is concerned. Take the points, but if you want to take Memphis on the money line, I'm not going to try and talk you out of it.
Key Trend: Minnesota is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite.
Blazers at Kings, 10 p.m. | TV: League Pass
The Pick: Blazers Over 119.5 (-110) -- 
As I write this, Damian Lillard is listed as probable with an ankle injury and Jusuf Nurkic is questionable with a quad. I'm expecting Lillard to play when I make this pick. If he doesn't, abort the mission. In other words, do not place this bet unless you know Lillard's status, and if he does play, I like the Blazers' total as high as 121.5. If it's gone higher than that, avoid it. Anyway, I like this play for the same reason I liked it when we took it last week, and it cashed: Sacramento's defense is awful, and Portland has one of the most explosive offenses in the league thanks to Lillard and C.J. McCollum. 
Key Trend: Sacramento is allowing 121.1 points per game this season, including 125 to Portland last week.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: The Advanced Computer Model has a very strong lean on tonight's game between the Mavericks and Hornets.
💸 The DFS Rundown
Star Plays
PG: Damian Lillard, Blazers
SG: CJ McCollum, Blazers
SF: Kevin Durant, Nets
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
C: Jarrett Allen, Nets
Value Plays
PG: Elfrid Payton, Knicks
SG: Eric Bledsoe, Pelicans
SF: Josh Hart, Pelicans
PF: James Johnson, Mavericks
C: Brook Lopez, Bucks
Full lineup advice
Get winning NBA DFS picks from SportsLine pros Mike McClure and Jacob Gibbs. McClure has won almost $2 million in daily Fantasy, while Gibbs crushed the NBA last season, cashing around 65 percent of the time in cash games and nearly 45 percent of the time in tournaments. See their DraftKings advice and FanDuel lineups here.
 🏀 NBA Player Props
  • Brook Lopez Over 0.5 assists (-120)
  • Jarrett Allen Over 1.5 assists (-120)
  • Brandon Ingram Over 5.5 rebounds (-115)
  • Serge Ibaka Under 14.5 points (-120)
24/7 Sports News
Listen before you bet!
✔Scores & Highlights
✔Fantasy and Betting Advice
✔Interviews with Top Athletes

CBS Sports HQ has you covered. Stream anywhere, anytime, on any device.
Watch Now
Our new sports betting podcast brings you the best bets of the day in under 10 minutes by 11am ET. EVERY. SINGLE. DAY.
Download and subscribe!
You are receiving this email because you're opted in to receive the CBS Sports HQ newsletter from CBSSports.com.
To ensure delivery of emails from CBSSports.com, please add contact@email.cbssports.com to your address book.
Privacy Policy | Manage Subscriptions |  Unsubscribe
Not a HQ AM/PM newsletter subscriber? Sign up here.
© 2021 CBS Interactive Inc. | 1401 West Cypress Creek Road, Fort Lauderdale, FL 33309

Want to protect your real email from messages like this? Use TempM email and be more secure on the internet.