MARCUS END OF DAY - Monday, 1 September

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The ASX 200 has finished the day down 45 points or 0.51%. The latest Trump Twitter-escapade blamed for risk-off selling. Small recovery from midday lows thanks to Resources, REITs (ex. GMG) and Energy mounting a comeback to close flat. Three Amigos not making up any ground as iron ore in Singapore slipped 2% to $101. BHP and RIO down around 1%. FMG down 0.9% accounting for the dividend. Gold stocks went from good to great, pulling the whole sector higher. NST and EVN both up over 5%. Uranium modestly higher. BOE up 2%. Lithium modestly lower. PLS down 0.8%. Copper near flat. SFR up 0.2%. Price up on both the CME and LME didn’t carry over.

Financials down as banks were hit while stock market stocks were hammered. Big four down between 0.3% and 0.9%. GDG down 8.7%, HUB and NWL down nearly 5%, PNI down 4.5%. MQG escaped the worst. Only down 0.7%. Fickle traders. Odds are they will bounce back just as quickly. Nothing terribly wrong in the US. Tech stocks stayed biggest losers. WTC now down 15% since results. XRO had an even worse day down 4.1%. CDA down 3.7% on profit taking. Other defence names held up better. ASB only down 1.1%. DRO off 1.8%. DTEC near flat. Staples, Telecom and Utilities slightly in the green. Quiet on the announcements front now reporting season is done. HK having a good day up 2.2%. Japan down 0.4%. US futures near flat. Closed tonight.

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STORIES

• McMillan Shakespeare (MMS +0.2%) – Novated leasing growth the key highlight from MMS results on Friday. Holding onto all its gains today despite the market heading lower.
• NextDC (NXT +1.4%) – Brokers happy with the NXT result (as expected). Stock up another 1.5% today, backing up Friday’s big 17.4% jump. Outlook the key reason for the rise say analysts. 

ANNOUNCEMENTS

• Medibank Private (MPL -2.2%) – Macquarie calls private health insurers like MPL and NHF safe haven stocks if the economy weakens but both expensive. Its MPL target price is 6% below the current share price. NHF 28% below the current share price. Wouldn’t let that deter you from buying. NHF’s forward PE (17x) is actually below its 10Y average. MPL (21x) is near, but not at its 10Y peak.
• Capricorn Metals (CMM +11.7%) – Macquarie makes no changes to Netural rating or $10 target price for the gold miner. Says results missed due to high operating and finance costs. Production guidance was maintained.
• South32 (S32 +0.4%) – Macquarie cuts its target price by 16% to $2.70 and downgrades to Neutral following last week’s results miss. Silver, lead and zinc segments all came in below expectations while cost inflation came in above expectations.
• Nufarm (NUF +0.4%) – Morgans drops target price 6% to $2.60. Too much uncertainty on the outlook following sale of its Seed segment and too highly leveraged.
• Northern Star (NST +6.4%) – Macquarie switches its preference of large cap gold miner on the ASX from NEM to NST on account of NEM’s recent run and analyst recent visit to NST’s KCGM yielding no negative surprises.
• Boss Energy (BOE +2.1%) – Results beat expectations last Friday but only due to non-cash items rather than operational success. Highlight was FY26 guidance reaffirming production of 1.6mlbs at an AISC of US$41-45/lb. Independent review regarding the leachability issues is ongoing. Key risk remains uncertainty on whether Honeymoon will be able to achieve nameplate capacity.
• Bapcor (BAP -6.8%) – The auto parts company yet to recover from its big July results drop. Macquarie has slightly raised its target price to $3.85. Neutral rating maintained. No specific guidance was provided in its (pre-released) results last Friday.
• Adairs (ADH -4.8%) – Morgans raises target price 12% to $2.90. Calls results last week in line with expectations.
• Austal (ASB -1.2%) – Citi has kept its Neutral rating and $7 target price unchanged post results. Highlighted management didn’t say in the conference call that they can double earnings again next FY. Calls the consensus earnings forecast of $120m conservative. That number would imply 6% growth YoY.
• NextDC (NXT +1.4%) – Lauches search for long-term JV partners to fund the 850MW new hyperscale data centre in Sydney. Dubbed ‘Project Berlin’.
• Lotus Resources (LOT +10%) – Produces first U3O8 from Kayelekera. Uranium stocks mixed on the open.
• Insurance Australia Group (IAG +0.6%) – Completes acquisition of RACQ Insurance (previously announced).
• Catalyst Metals (CYL +8.6%) – Resumes trading following a minor, technical misstatement in its FY24 Consolidated Entity was identified. The Australian gold producer reports full year profit of $119.3m. 2% ahead of the consensus.
• Corporate Travel Management (CTD +0%) – Remains in trading halt until lodgment of Preliminary Final Report.

EX-DIVIDEND TODAY

• FMG (60c 100%), PNI (27c 88%), AZJ, TAH, KAR, JIN, GNG, PFP, ACL.
• WES (111c 100%), SIG, WOW (45c 100%), NST, STO, WOR, BEN, EDV, CDA, ILU, MAF, DMP, EQT tomorrow.

SCANS

• 52-week highs (Pre-market): SOL, NEM, HVN, ARG, APE, RMS, CDA, ZIP, BKW, LOV, CNU, VAU, ASB, WGX, IHVV, MP1, TAH, NCK, DYL, DTL, MMS, SIQ, TYR, DUR, QRE, WIRE, FAL.
• 52-week lows (Pre-market): PGC, SKO, BBUS, RFG.

DIARY

• US is closed for the Labor Day holiday tonight.
• US Non-Farm Payrolls (10:30pm on Friday night) will be the main event of the week. The main event for Australia will be the quarterly GDP on Wednesday

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