All of the bets you should make on Chiefs vs. Ravens tonight

Create: 2020-09-28
Update: 2020-09-28
Score: 5
Safe: Yes

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Monday, September 28, 2020
If it's felt like your Monday has been moving slower than usual, don't worry, you're not alone. We've all just been staring at the clock waiting for tonight's Monday Night Football game between the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs.
It's such a great matchup that I've repeatedly been caught off-guard by it. I'm old enough to remember a couple of years ago when there was an unspoken agreement that said Monday Night Football was only able to show games nobody really wanted to watch unless they were the only game on. Who could forget all those thrilling games between the Broncos and Chargers, or the Giants and The Team Now Known As Football Team battling for third place in the NFC East? Monday nights were the original Thursday nights for a while there.
But now we get marquee matchups featuring two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. A game that has a legitimate chance to be a preview of the AFC Championship Game. I only wish I could go back in time to tell 2018 Tom that all his Monday night suffering would be validated one day. All it took was roughly 15 different MNF booth combinations and a pandemic to get there!
To help fill the time that remains between now and kick, catch up on today's reading.
  • Cowboys DL Trysten Hill is likely to be fined for his dirty tactics against Seattle's Chris Carson.
  • Our Jonathan Jones says the excuses are running out for Carson Wentz.
  • The NBA Finals begin Wednesday night. Here's a primer on what you need to know.
  • Need to catch up on what happened in college football over the weekend? I know of a very handsome man who can help fill you in.
OK, is it time for kickoff yet?.
All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Ravens vs. Chiefs, 8:15 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Chiefs +3.5 (-110)
: Betting the NFL is complicated, and I tell you this despite going 3-0 in my bets on Sunday. There's so much action on NFL games that sportsbooks devote an ungodly amount of time and energy to nailing every aspect of their lines, making it exceedingly difficult to find an edge you can exploit. That's why sometimes you don't need math and just some common sense.
When you're getting points with Patrick Mahomes, take the points.
Yes, Baltimore is a very good team, and it has its own outstanding quarterback in Lamar Jackson. The Ravens could easily win this game and might go on to win the Super Bowl this year. But we're talking about Patrick Mahomes here. And he's getting points. The Chiefs have been underdogs with Mahomes as their starter six times, and they've gone 5-0-1 against the spread. The lone push was their thrilling 54-51 loss to the Rams on Monday Night Football last season. As fantastic as Lamar Jackson is, the Ravens are only 4-7 ATS when favored at home with him at QB.
Don't overthink this one. It might not win, but it won't be because you were wrong.
Key Trend: The Chiefs are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 road games.
Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: The SportsLine projection model has simulated the Monday Night Football matchup 10,000 times and is overwhelmingly leaning one way.
💰The Picks
🏒 NHL
Stars vs. Lightning, 8 p.m. | TV: NBC
The Pick: Over 5 (-140) -- 
Oh, by the way, a team could hoist the Stanley Cup tonight. The Lightning hold a 3-2 series lead on the Stars heading into Game 6. So will it happen? Honestly, I don't know. If I were to take the money line in this one, I'd lean Dallas just because +140 seems like a fair price on a team that's only been beaten by multiple goals once in the series. I like the total better, though, because the Over is 2-0-3 in the series. None of the first five games have featured fewer than five goals, and overall this series is averaging 6.2 goals per game.
Key Trend: The over is 17-5-4 in the past 26 meetings between these teams.
🏈 NFL
Ravens vs. Chiefs, 8:15 p.m | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Over 55 (-110) -- 
Listen, with a limited slate of games tonight, we might as well double-dip (and then triple and quadruple-dip) on Monday Night Football. Let's attack the total as well by expecting this game to be as fun as it looks like it'll be on paper. When these two teams met last season, the score was 33-28. Patrick Mahomes threw for 374 yards and three touchdowns and did so despite Kansas City not having Tyreek Hill available. Tonight the Ravens will be without Tavon Young in the secondary, and you don't ever want to be thin in the secondary against Mahomes.
The Ravens, meanwhile, are going against a Chiefs defense that was bad against the run last year and doesn't look any better against it this year. Through two weeks of the season, the Chiefs rush defense ranks 27th in the NFL in DVOA. That's good news for the Ravens offense. This game could easily be the back-and-forth touchdown fest we're all hoping for.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Since today is so light on games, we have a pick for you on a game that will be played before tomorrow's newsletter is sent out. The SportsLine Projection Model is heavily favoring one side of the Astros vs. Twins Wild-Card Round game on Tuesday at 2 p.m. ET. SportsLine subscribers can get picks for that game, and for every other MLB game Tuesday, here.
💸 The DFS Rundown
Your MVP or Captain
Lamar Jackson ($16.5K FD/$13K DK) -- This is a slight fade attempt. If you're playing the single-game slate tonight, odds are most people are going to shoehorn both Jackson and Patrick Mahomes into their lineups and go from there. I expect more people will be tempted to put Mahomes in their MVP or Captain spot, so let's go against the grain with Lamar Jackson. He always carries a high floor thanks to his rushing ability, and there's a better than average chance he outscores Mahomes.
Value
Miles Boykin, WR ($7K FD/$3.4K DK) -- Boykin hasn't put up great numbers through two games. He's been targeted nine times and has seven receptions for 75 yards and no touchdowns. The first score could come tonight, though. Lamar Jackson's favorite target is Mark Andrews, and he'll be heavily-owned tonight. But, the Chiefs have Tyrann Mathieu. He's one of the few corners in the league that can neutralize Andrews. Boykin could be the beneficiary of a lot more targets tonight because of it.
Full lineup advice
SportsLine's team of DFS insiders has you covered for daily fantasy sports. Mike McClure has won almost $2 million playing DFS and is one of the top MLB DFS experts anywhere. Check out his MLB picks here, and be sure to see what he's picking for NBA DFS here too. Use SportsLine's all-new DFS Optimizer to get  optimal NFL DFS picks from 10,000 simulations.
🏈 Monday Night Football Props
Between the spread, total and all of these props, we're going to be sweating every play tonight.
  • Tyreek Hill Over 66.5 receiving yards (-115)
  • Tyreek Hill Over 5.5 receptions (-110)
  • Demarcus Robinson Over 20.5 receiving yards (-115)
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire Under 64.5 rushing yards (-115)
  • Mark Andrews Under 54.5 receiving yards (-115)
 
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