The line for No. 12 Missouri at Auburn doesn\'t make a lot of sense

Create: 2021-01-26
Update: 2021-01-26
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Tuesday, January 26, 2021
Hello and Happy Tuesday. It is I, Tom Fornelli, who is one of the two authors of this newsletter who doesn't need to follow Tom Brady's diet to be great. Pete needs the TB12 method, but I was just born great. Wake up, be great, go to bed and do it all over again. That's the TF3 method. Enjoy that green juice, Pete! I'll just be here drinking my water.
Delicious. Refreshing.
Anyway, how are you doing today? I hope you're well. I know I am, because I'm sitting here watching Premier League soccer, and my bet is currently winning. All of which serves as a nice distraction from the roughly five inches of snow I need to shovel off my deck when I finish writing this newsletter. So you should probably feel extra confident about following my picks today because you know I've been doing a deep dive into my research to put off shoveling snow for a little longer.
It's hard work being lazy, folks. It's the TF3 method, baby. Another part of the TF3 method involves exercising your mind, and what better way to do that than by reading? It's fundamental, you know!
  • Green Bay's CEO says Aaron Rodgers will be back next season.
  • The Lions replace Matt Stafford in Ryan Wilson's latest mock draft.
  • Let's grade NBA teams at the quarter mark of the season!
  • The best fits for the remaining MLB free agents.
Now let's go be great.
All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
No. 12 Missouri at Auburn, 9 p.m. | TV: ESPN2
The Pick: Missouri +2.5 (-110)
: This play is a bit counterintuitive for me. Usually, when I see a ranked team that's an underdog to an unranked team, I'm on the unranked favorite. Not here, though. This is a line that just doesn't make a lot of sense because I'm a believer in this Missouri team. And I say that to you as an Illini. I am bred to hate Mizzou basketball with all my heart. As much as I try to, I still have to admit this is a good team, particularly on the defensive end.
This is a Mizzou team that's picked up a neutral site win over Oregon, as well as road wins against Wichita State, Arkansas and Tennessee over the weekend. It's also beaten Illinois. Tonight, against an Auburn team that turns the ball over too often, I like the Tigers' chances of going on the road and picking up another conference win. Still, I'm doing to take the points because Auburn's not a pushover.
Key Trend: Mizzou is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.
Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: Does the Advanced Computer Model have the same kind of faith in Mizzou that I do, or is it leaning Auburn's direction?
💰 The Picks
🏀 College Basketball
Eastern Michigan at Akron, 7:30 p.m. | TV: ESPN3
The Pick: Eastern Michigan +10.5 (-110) -- 
OK, so I've given you a break from betting on awful teams, but tonight you need to do it. Don't think of this as betting on Eastern Michigan, as much as it's betting against Akron. Sure, the Zips are better than the Eagles, but they aren't good enough defensively to be favored by this much. 
We shouldn't overlook that Eastern Michigan has played a more difficult schedule than the Zips this season. While that alone cannot account for how lousy they've been (they shoot 25.7% from three, which ranks 343rd nationally), it impacts this spread just a little too much. Oh, and did I mention that when these two played in Ypsilanti earlier this season, Eastern Michigan won by 12? Yep. That happened.
Key Trend: Akron is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 as a favorite.
🏀 NBA
Knicks at Jazz, 9 p.m. | TV: League Pass
The Pick: Under 211.5 (-110) -- 
I'm not overthinking this one. Yes, the total is low, but these are two of the NBA's best defensive teams. Utah comes into tonight's contest ranked third in the league in defensive efficiency, and the Knicks are right behind them in fourth. They're also two of the slowest-moving teams in the league. The Jazz rank 28th in the NBA with 102 possessions per game, while the Knicks are dead last with 99. They move slowly and play good defense: all the necessary ingredients for a solid under play.
Key Trend: The under is 10-3 in New York's last 13 games as an underdog.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: The Advanced Computer Model loves a play on the spread in tonight's NBA game between the Rockets and Wizards.
💸 The DFS Rundown
Star Plays
PG: Russell Westbrook, Wizards
SG: Bradley Beal, Wizards
SF: R.J. Barrett, Knicks
PF: Julius Randle, Knicks
C: DeMarcus Cousins, Rockets
Value Plays
PG: Jerome Robinson, Wizards
SG: Kevin Huerter, Hawks
SF: Nicolas Batum, Clippers
PF: Marcus Morris, Clippers
C: Alex Len, Wizards
Full lineup advice
Get winning NBA DFS picks from SportsLine pros Mike McClure and Jacob Gibbs. McClure has won almost $2 million in daily Fantasy, while Gibbs crushed the NBA last season, cashing around 65 percent of the time in cash games and nearly 45 percent of the time in tournaments. See their DraftKings advice and FanDuel lineups here. 
 🏀 NBA Player Props
  • DeMarcus Cousins Over 3.5 assists (+115)
  • Luke Kennard Under 3.5 assists (+105)
  • Elfrid Payton Over 3.5 assists (-135)
  • Joe Ingles Over 2.5 rebounds (-135)
 
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