The best bets for both NFL games tonight

Create: 2020-10-05
Update: 2020-10-05
Score: 5
Safe: Yes

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Monday, October 5, 2020
Good afternoon, person smart enough to subscribe to this newsletter! I hope your week is off to a great start already, and if it isn't, it's about to be. Yes, while 2020 has been a disaster of epic proportion overall, we must take the small victories when we can find them, and tonight we've found one.
It's our second Monday night of the NFL season that is featuring two games, and all it took was a pandemic to make it happen! With Sunday's scheduled game between the Chiefs and Patriots needing to be postponed due to positive COVID tests -- including Patriots quarterback Cam Newton -- the NFL moved the game to Monday at 7:05 p.m. on CBS and CBS All Access.
So tonight we get the Chiefs and Patriots as well as the originally scheduled game between the Packers and Falcons. And, yes, dear reader, I know you're wondering if I have bets for both games, and you're darn right I do. Did you think I was going to send you into a Monday night featuring two NFL games without a gameplan to make some money?
Well, I'm kind of hurt by that, to be honest. I thought you trusted me or at least knew me better than that. Wow, I'm going to need to compose myself here. Quick, read these stories while I try to get over this heartbreak.
  • Another NFL weekend, another set of running backs getting hurt. An early look at the waiver wire.
  • Our James Herbert breaks down how the Heat took down the Lakers on Sunday.
  • Another crazy weekend has shaken up Dennis Dodd's college football power rankings.
  • Former Florida State coach Bobby Bowden has tested positive for COVID-19.
All right, I'm good now. Just don't hurt me like that again, all right? Let's just put that ugly chapter in our history behind us and get back to doing what we do best: making money.
All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Patriots at Chiefs, 7:05 p.m. | TV: CBS
The Pick: Patriots +10.5 (-110)
: Last week, in this very newsletter, I was brave enough to tell you to take the Chiefs +3.5 against Baltimore. The reasoning behind the decision was simple: if Patrick Mahomes is getting points, you take Patrick Mahomes and the points. Well, this week, we are provided with another such opportunity. One in which a team coached by Bill Belichick is getting 10.5 points. What do we do when Bill Belichick is getting 10.5 points? We take the points.
Belichick teams are monsters ATS as it is, but since 2003 they've gone 23-10-2 ATS when they're the underdog.
"But, Tom, they're starting Brian Hoyer tonight! Tom Brady's no longer there!"
Yeah, well, Belichick has been an underdog three times without Brady since 2003 when having to start Jimmy Garappolo and Matt Cassel. He's 2-1 ATS in those three games, too. Listen, I understand that it's scary to bet on Brian Hoyer against Patrick Mahomes here, I do, but scared money don't make money. Sometimes you have to overlook the fear and find the courage to do what's right. And taking the Patriots is the right thing to do.
Key Trend: The underdog has covered the last four meetings.
Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: SportsLine's Advanced Computer Model has a play for tonight's game as well. 
💰The Picks
🏈 NFL
Falcons at Packers, 8:50 p.m | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Under 57 (-110) -- 
All right, so taking an under in this game might seem like a deathwish. Overs are having a strong start to the 2020 NFL season as they're 36-24-1 so far, and this game features two offenses combining for 70.7 points per game and two defenses allowing 64.3. If I believe in anything as a bettor, it's in the power of the wind to slow down offenses. Nothing impacts a football game outside of an extreme weather event like the wind, and tonight will be blustery in Green Bay. The current forecast calls for 16 mph winds blowing across the field, impacting both the passing and kicking game. As a result, this one could look a bit sloppier than expected.
Key Trend: The under is 5-2 in Green Bay's last seven as a favorite.
⚾ MLB
Rays vs. Yankees, 8:07 p.m | TV: TBS
The Pick: Rays (+134) -- 
What if I told you a team that had won eight of 10 games against an opponent this season was facing that same team in the playoffs, and it was the underdog? Well, that's the case tonight. Part of that is the Yankee Mystique. Another (significant) part is that Gerrit Cole is starting for the Yankees. But I don't care because the Rays have dominated the Yankees this year, and they have their ace, Blake Snell, on the mound as well. If I can get them at underdog value in this spot, I'm taking it every time.
Key Trend: Again, the Rays are 8-2 against the Yankees this season.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: The SportsLine Projection Model, which is up over $7,300 all-time on its top-rated picks, has strong spread and moneyline plays on Packers-Falcons at 8:50 p.m. ET. SportsLine subscribers can get picks for that game, and for every other NFL game this week, here.
💸 The DFS Rundown
Your MVP or Captain
Aaron Rodgers ($15K FD/$11.4K DK) -- No need to overthink this one. If you're playing the single-game slate for the late game, you want Rodgers as your MVP or Captain. His worst game this season saw him score 18.7 points on FanDuel and 19.2 on DraftKings. Through three games, he's averaging 295.7 yards and three touchdowns per game. Tonight he's facing an Atlanta defense that has allowed 350 yards and three passing touchdowns per game.
Value
Robert Tonyan ($7K FD/$4.6K DK) -- Tonyan didn't see a single target in Green Bay's season-opening win against Minnesota, but has become more involved in the offense since. In the last two weeks, he's caught seven of the eight passes thrown his way for 75 yards and two touchdowns. Tonight he's going against an Atlanta defense that has allowed four touchdowns to opposing tight ends (at least one in each game) in the first three weeks.
Full lineup advice
SportsLine's team of DFS insiders has you covered for daily fantasy sports. Mike McClure has won almost $2 million playing DFS and is one of the top MLB DFS experts anywhere. Check out his MLB picks here, and be sure to see what he's picking for NBA DFS here too. Use SportsLine's all-new DFS Optimizer to get  optimal NFL DFS picks from 10,000 simulations.
 🏈 Monday Night Football Props 
  • Travis Kelce Anytime TD (+100)
  • Robert Tonyan Anytime TD (+200)
  • Robert Tonyan Under 3.5 receptions (-105)
  • Aaron Jones Under 4.5 receptions (-110)
 
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